Just one slip-up and it's over for four WNBL teams

Written By

Hayley Wildes

Contributor

Just one slip-up and it's over for four WNBL teams

Keely Froling of Geelong United looks on from the bench with Hannah Lowe, assistant coach of Geelong United, during the round 14 WNBL match between Geelong United and Canberra Capitals at The Geelong Arena, on February 01, 2025, in Geelong. Photo: Adam Trafford/Getty Images

Four teams are fighting for fourth and the final WNBL playoff spot

Bendigo Spirit are runaway WBNL25 minor premiers
Four teams fighting for fourth and a playoff spot
There are just two games to go in the WNBL season

Only two rounds are left in the 2024-25 WNBL regular season, and the competition for the fourth and final postseason spot is well and truly wide open.

With just one win separating fourth to seventh on the ladder, there’s a very real chance the makeup of the top four won’t be decided until the final couple of games of the season. This sets up a tantalising finish to the regular season and some huge games that will be make-or-break for the teams.

As the ladder stands heading into Round 15 — which kicks off on Wednesday February 5, 2025 with Adelaide Lightning hosting Townsville Fire (Game Centre) — the Sydney Flames (7-11) are the only team fighting for fourth who controls their own destiny. If they win their three remaining games, they will claim the all-important fourth spot and a semi-final meeting with the ladder-leading Bendigo Spirit.

If they slip up, the Canberra Capitals (7-12), Adelaide Lightning (6-12) and even Geelong United (6-13) are all in with a chance.

Before we discuss the possible scenarios in detail, it’s important to know the tie-breaker rules for teams tied on points at the end of the season.

Bendigo players react during the round 14 WNBL match between Bendigo Spirit and Southside Flyers at Red Energy Arena on February 02, 2025, in Bendigo. Photo: Kelly Defina/Getty Images

The official WNBL rules state: "if two or more teams are tied with the same win/loss percentage during the regular season, they will be ranked based on Head to Head results among the tied teams.”

If these two or more teams have the same win-loss record of the games between them, further criteria shall be applied in the following order:

Higher game points difference of the games between them
Higher number of game points scored in the games between them
Higher game points difference of all games during the season
Higher number of game points scored in all games in the group”

With that in mind, it’s clear that the head-to-head results are crucial. The good news for Sydney fans is that their thrilling overtime win against Canberra last round, which was arguably the game of the season, saw them claim the season series over the Capitals. They have won both meetings so far, with one match-up still to play.

Canberra has the tie-breaker over Adelaide, having won two of the three meetings, while Adelaide won the season series against Sydney by two games to one.

For Geelong to sneak in, they need to win their remaining two games and the results of all games of the other three teams chasing postseason action to go their way. It’s a near-impossible task.

While their Round 14 encounter was likely the most crucial game of the season up to that point, Sunday’s clash between Canberra and Sydney holds equal significance. For the Capitals, it’s simply a must-win. If Sydney wins, it will eliminate Canberra from the postseason, and the same goes for Geelong (who also need to win on Friday night against Perth to keep their slim chances alive).

Sydney, led by Shaneice Swain's magic, has claimed critical wins over Canberra. Adelaide will face the Capitals, Fire, and Flyers to round out its regular-season campaign.

Shaneice Swain of the Flames drives to the basket during the round 14 WNBL match between Canberra Capitals and Sydney Flames at AIS Arena on January 30, 2025, in Canberra. Photo: Mark Nolan/Getty Images

Swain has been on a different level over the past four games, averaging 27 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game, including those two monster 40-point and 36-point games against Townsville and Canberra. She’s an unbelievable offensive talent and a joy to watch.

The back and forth between Swain and Jade Melbourne was WNBL at its best last round, putting on a show of the incredible young talent in the league and providing a glimpse into the future of the Opals backcourt. While Swain finished with 36 points, six rebounds, four assists and the W, Melbourne did all she could to try to will the Capitals home with 28 points, 10 assists and four rebounds. Get ready for another showcase on Sunday afternoon!

With Adelaide owning the tie-breaker over Sydney, they remain a dangerous threat, especially considering their star power, with the likes of Opals Steph Talbot and Izzy Borlase capable of taking over games, while imports Brianna Turner and Japreece Dean have been strong this season, along with rising Australian talent Issie Bourne.

If the Lightning can topple Townsville on Wednesday night, it’s game on. That would have them tied with Canberra at 7-12 (Canberra does own the tie-breaker), setting up a monster Sunday of hoops with the Lightning taking on the bottom-placed Flyers before the Capitals face the Flames. It shapes as being a season-defining day of basketball.

Steph Talbot of the Lightning takes a rebound during the round 13 WNBL match between Bendigo Spirit and Adelaide Lightning at Red Energy Arena on January 24, 2025, in Bendigo. Photo: Kelly Defina/Getty Images

Adelaide finishes off their season against Geelong, while Canberra faces the daunting task of figuring out how to beat an all-conquering Bendigo team currently on a nine-game win streak.

It’s all going to be on the line in the final two rounds of the season for those jostling for fourth spot, but just as close is the battle for second, with Perth (14-5) and Townsville (13-5) locked in a clash for home-court advantage in impending their semi-final clash.

In a script-writer’s dream, the season series between the two teams is currently tied at 1-1 and of course they will meet in the final game of the season in what will decide who finishes in second if they both win their remaining games prior to that clash.

The Lynx face United before taking on the Fire, while Townsville will have to deal with two desperate teams in Adelaide and Sydney before hosting Perth.

Perth boasts a well-rounded team, with five game-changers in Laeticia Amihere, Amy Atwell, Anneli Maley, Miela Sowah and Ally Wilson. They are an up-tempo beast, who get out and run at every opportunity.

Lauren Cox of the Fire takes a shot during the round nine WNBL match between Townsville Fire and Bendigo Spirit at Townsville Entertainment Centre on December 31, 2024, in Townsville. Photo: by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

Townsville is a defensive-minded unit of role players who are stars in their respective roles. Courtney Woods's jump this season has been phenomenal and she’s a genuine All-WNBL First Team contender, averaging 16.2 points, 6.1 rebounds and 6 assists per game.

While Woods is the leader, Lauren Cox has been everything they could’ve hoped for in an import big, and recruits Alicia Froling, Abbey Ellis and Alex Fowler have all had terrific seasons.

All this suggests that you must watch WNBL games over the next two weeks before what promises to be a hotly contested postseason.

Sit back and enjoy the show!

About the Author

Hayley Wildes is passionate about all things Australian women’s basketball and loves to highlight the stories of players from all levels and competitions across the globe. From our own backyard in the WNBL, to the WNBA and the Opals, and everything in between, Hayley has you covered.