Final Four: Key factors to decide WNBL title chase

• The Perth Lynx beat the Townsville Fire 2-0 in last year's semi-finals
• Bendigo finished the season at the top of the ladder with a record of 18-3
• Sydney will be without Mikaela Ruef, Emma Clarke and import Celeste Taylor in the playoffs

The WNBL postseason is here!

After a regular season that provided endless highlights and memorable battles, which included an overtime game-winning triple in the final game of the season to decide second spot, we now look ahead to what promises to be a highly entertaining finals series.

That game-winning triple by Alex Ciabattoni against Townsville locked Perth into second and with that comes the all-important home-court advantage in their semi-final clash against the Fire, which looks set to be an incredible series.

The stage is set, so let’s dive into two semi-final series that will decide who faces off for the championship in March.

BENDIGO SPIRIT (1) V SYDNEY FLAMES (4)

There’s no doubt this is going to be an uphill battle for Sydney, who take on a Bendigo team that has been dominant from the opening tip this season, while the Flames are banged up after winning important games down the stretch to claim the final postseason spot.

The Spirit boast MVP Sami Whitcomb, All-WNBL Second Team members Veronica Burton and Kelsey Griffin, Sixth Woman of the Year Abbey Wehrung, Opal Marianna Tolo and the vital duo Casey Samuels and Kelly Wilson. They are a daunting opposition, with so much star power, yet they play a brand of basketball which allows each player their opportunity to shine in their role.

The Flames dug deep in back-to-back games against the Capitals to claim fourth spot but injuries are looming large on the eve of the postseason. Mikaela Ruef hasn’t played since early December while Emma Clarke has been out since early January and now superstar Cayla George has missed the last three games with a foot injury. To make things worse, import Celeste Taylor was ruled out for the rest of the season last week.

Let’s not forget Sydney lost Didi Richards and Lauren Nicholson just before the season started too. It’s a credit to the Flames that they’ve made it this far but they run into a Spirit squad primed for a run at the championship and will need all hands-on deck to compete.

THE MARQUEE MATCH-UP

Sami Whitcomb v Shaneice Swain

Get the popcorn ready because the two of the top three scorers in the league will battle it out when Sami Whitcomb and Shaneice Swain go head-to-head. Whitcomb (21 points per game) led the league in scoring while Swain (17.5 points per game) was third overall and delivered a performance, which equalled the highest scoring effort for this season when she dropped 40 points against Townsville.

These two players are the offensive engines of their respective teams and capable of the other worldly when it comes to shot creation and shot making. Whitcomb led the league in three-point makes (3.4 per game) and I’m sure you’ll be far from surprised to learn that Swain was second (3.2 per game). Whether Whitcomb is hitting a stepback or one-legged triples, she’s near impossible to stop from long range and Swain is just as crafty with her ability to hit from way behind the three-point arc.

Both will be ready to shoot their respective teams to glory but don’t underestimate their playmaking. Swain took her game to the next level this season and while her scoring has created the headlines, her facilitating has been key to opening up lanes for herself and her teammates. Surrounded by stars, Whitcomb has fed her teammates all season long and that chemistry will be key in the postseason.

WHERE IT WILL BE WON OR LOST

Sydney will need to be near perfect which has to start with cutting down their turnovers. All season turnovers came back to bite the Flames, who averaged a league-worst 18.8 per game - almost three more than Geelong (16.1) who committed the second most. Those mistakes will be preyed upon by a Spirit outfit which boasts three players inside the league’s top 10 in steals.

Whitcomb (2 steals per game), Burton (1.9) and Wilson (1.7) create havoc on the defensive end of the floor and Sydney will need calm heads to not get rattled by a veteran-led squad.

On the flip side, Sydney needs to turn up the defensive pressure in an attempt to slow Bendigo’s offensive game. The Spirit take care of the ball far better than any other team in the league, at just 12.4 turnovers per game, because they know what they want to run offensively and don’t rush into sets, instead taking what the defence gives them and working from there.

Isabella Bracatisiano’s lockdown role on Jade Melbourne a couple of weeks ago ultimately led the Flames to the finals and the entire teams needs to take a leaf out of her book by being relentless on the defensive end.

Game 1: Sunday, February 23, 3:30pm AEDT in Bendigo

Game 2: Thursday, February 27, 7:00pm AEDT in Sydney

Game 3 (if necessary): Sunday, March 2, 2:30pm AEDT in Bendigo

PERTH LYNX (2) V TOWNSVILLE FIRE (3)

Perth will be looking to break through and put their demons behind them after years of heartbreak in the postseason. In two of the past three years, the Lynx have been a pair of made free throws away from a championship and their shot at redemption begins with a semi-final clash against the Fire, in a rivalry which has arguably become the most fierce in the WNBL.

The Lynx put together a roster which suits the fast-paced play coach Ryan Petrik loves to employ, and it has paid dividends. Perth cleaned up at the WNBL Awards on Monday night with four players in All-WNBL Teams; Ally Wilson and Laeticia Amihere gaining First Team honours, and Miela Sowah and Anneli Maley named to the Second Team. Had Amy Atwell’s season not been interrupted by injury in the first half of the season, I’m sure she would’ve been knocking on the door too.

The Fire also left their mark at the awards night with Courtney Woods’ continued rise recognised with All-WNBL First Team honours, Shannon Seebohm wrote his name into the record books when he was awarded Coach of the Year, becoming the first coach to ever win the award five times. Lauren Cox was named Defensive Player of the Year and Abbey Ellis’ first season as a pro resulted in her claiming Breakout Player of the Year.

Clearly, this is going to be a battle between two extremely talented teams.

THE MARQUEE MATCH-UP

Ally Wilson v Courtney Woods

There is a plethora of match-ups worthy of highlighting but the improvement of Courtney Woods and Ally Wilson over the past couple of years has been exceptional and this season both rose to new levels.

Woods has been a quiet achiever on very good Fire squads in recent years but this season she became the fully fledged leader of Townsville and has taken it all in her stride, averaging career-highs across the board with 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game.

On a very balanced Perth roster, the addition of Wilson this season has helped catapult their offence forward. She leads the team is assists (4.5 per game), is third in both points (14.6 per game) and rebounding (4.8 per game) and her pace has been the perfect tonic for Perth to get out and run. Often a one-woman fastbreak, Wilson gets up the court so quick that it leaves opponents gasping for air and her ability to get to the basket and finish has been exceptional.

Both play with such desire and are always ready to give their team a boost with a hustle play or big basket, such is their ability to do the little things but also step up in the big moments and make plays for their team. This battle of the guards will be a lot of fun to watch!

WHERE IT WILL BE WON OR LOST

Townsville owns the best defence in the league while Perth has the number one offence. We saw what happened when the two forces collided on Sunday - it took overtime to separate them – and if we get anything like that in this semi-final series, we’re in for a treat.

The pace Perth plays at creates more possessions for themselves, which takes a toll on the opposition over 40 minutes of basketball. Townsville, led by the anchor inside and Defensive Player of the Year Lauren Cox, relies on strong individual defenders on the perimeter (Woods and Ellis) forcing their opponents into the sights of Cox who is waiting in the paint.

Cox has been swatting shots all season (3.1 blocks per game) and even if she doesn’t get a hand to the ball, her presence in the paint alone impacts opponent’s shots and willingness to drive into the lane.

It’s often said defence wins championships, but Perth will be out to prove a high-octane offence which thrives on pace, pace and more pace can produce the goods.

Game 1: Saturday, February 22, 5:00pm AWST in Perth

Game 2: Wednesday, February 26, 6:30pm AEST in Townsville

Game 3 (if necessary): Saturday, March 1, time TBC in Perth