Copes' Corner: A deep dive into the NBL semi-finals

• NBL legend Lanard Copeland has joined Basketball.com.au as a columnist for the playoffs
• Copeland won two NBL championships with the Melbourne Tigers
• He has tipped the Illawarra Hawks and Melbourne United to meet in the finals

COPES' CORNER — An insight with NBL legend Lanard Copeland

When I got to Australia, the Perth Wildcats had beaten the Melbourne Tigers 10 years in a row. Melbourne had never won in Perth. Never.

We go up in there, in a championship game, and we get them. Because sometimes you can be overconfident. The balloons were in the rafters, we see the champagne bottles.

They knew they're going to win this game but we walked into that stadium full of confidence, well, I know I was full of confidence because that’s how I was anyway. Because there ain’t no way because of what happened in history, that I’m going to feel down or worried about not winning at all.

Now, I know it’s Melbourne United who have the trend on the Wildcats as far as winning both games at RAC Arena this season, and also winning all three games against Perth, but I don’t think Perth, who know Melbourne have the wood on them, really care with the way they’re playing right now. I don’t think it bothers them at all.

I think they’re going to come in and play their game, now it might not end up being good enough, but I don’t think they’ll care about their record against Melbourne.

Perth are a different team than earlier in the season, want to know why? Yes, Bryce Cotton is the MVP and the best player in the league, but the difference for me; Keanu Pinder and Kristian Doolittle.

Pinder, who's so full of confidence right now, him and John Rillie really seem to have a better relationship, and in the beginning of the season, it wasn't so great. But I watched Pinder come off the floor against the Phoenix and I saw smile in his face, and JR smile back, they were giving high-fives and there's just such a different relationship.

But the guy who's changed for me is Doolittle because Doolittle came to Australia as a defender, one of the best defenders in the league. For some strange reason he didn’t really shoot much but he’s obviously sat down with their coaches and they said “we want you to shoot the ball” and he's efficient when he shoots it now and he's knocking it down.

So, Melbourne United’s frontcourt of Jack White, Rob Loe and Marcus Lee have their work cut out for them. United have plenty of bodies they can throw at Cotton with Shea Ili, Delly and Flynn Cameron but not much depth in the bigs. If Pinder and Doolittle can get going, along with Cotton doing his thing, then I think it's going to be a different series.

I know I’ve focused on some other key players but don’t look past Bryce Cotton either. He knows Melbourne have kept him quiet with just 19 points in two games this season, and there’s no doubt he will be taking that personally. That’s the mindset of an elite scorer.

Melbourne are so tough though, I still think Dean Vickerman is one of the smartest coaches in the league and he knows how to get the best out of his players, but I'm an offensive guy and if those three guys are clicking, Melbourne United will have their hands full.

One thing I would like to see from Dean and Melbourne, let Chris Goulding play. Let’s see him play more than 22 minutes per game, he does so much for the team, even if he’s not hitting, he always makes an impact by drawing attention. But if he’s hot, let him roll, let him go.

KEY MATCH-UP: Jack White vs Kristian Doolittle

I think Jack White has to be consistent. Jack White has to be aggressive, he has to be ultra-aggressive, he has to score, he has to rebound and he has to stay out of foul trouble.

I think if Doolittle gets the edge on White, whether that means White's in foul trouble or White's sitting down for whatever reason, then it’s advantage Perth. Then the second matchup for me is going to be Keanu Pinder and Rob Loe.

You know, if Pinder's playing well, we know what Cotton can do, we know what Chris Goulding can do, so again, I go back to those other two guys.

PREDICTION: 2-1 Melbourne

Going to the Illawarra Hawks match-up with the South East Melbourne Phoenix, it’s a story involving a few things.

It’s a battle of styles with the offensive focus Illawarra Hawks going up against a defensive team in the Phoenix. But another factor I think is extremely interesting heading into this series is South East Melbourne are playoff tested after the two play-in games but the Hawks have had 21 days off.

The Phoenix played and got down big to Adelaide and were able to come back and sometimes when you’ve played in those games, it enhances your ability to play in tough situations but Illawarra have been sitting at home. Playoff level basketball is a different game, it’s more physical and the stress levels are higher.

So, the only worry is, will Illawarra be ready? Now I'm sure Justin Tatum will have them ready, but mentally it's a different game and I just see that South East Melbourne have been through it. They know what it takes.

I also think for the Hawks after finishing first and going into finals, you’re nervous. I was lucky enough to win two championships in the NBL and in both championships, we finished in third place. It's hard to go through a season in first place, maintain that and to win a championship. It's very hard. You have to be mentally strong, you have to be very lucky and injuries play a role.

South East Melbourne are the team that started 0-5. Everyone counted them out at the beginning of the year, but they believe in themselves. On top of all of that, they get a chance to add Derek Walton Jr to this game. The hidden gem is Derek Walton Jr because we know what he brings, he’s player who's been there and done that.

He doesn't have to necessarily come in and score but what he does well is get people the ball. If that's working and Matt Hurt is doing his thing, they've got to go in full of confidence, I don't care where it is, on the road, in China, I don't care.

For the Hawks, They finished in first place, so whatever they're doing is working. There’s nothing like playing in Wollongong in front of that big crowd and again, Darius Days comes back from injury, and Justin Tatum also has the best bench in the league. It's almost like the old Melbourne United team when Dean Vickerman had two teams, we thought it was unfair because his second five was just as good as his first.

But I have full confidence in Justin Tatum as a coach, I love what he’s brought to the NBL, he’s the cool coach of the league that’s for sure.

Every time you do an interview with any Illawarra player, they always seem to say we love playing for JT and say “we're doing this for JT” and let me tell you something in professional sports, that’s very rare. Back in my day, I would say the same thing about Lindsay Gaze but times have changed. Players make more money than coaches now, these young players today are a new generation, they do what they want to do.

So obviously, whatever he's bringing to the table is working, I made a joke about this earlier last year when he was an assistant coach. I said “JT, what the hell are you doing in Australia, man? Your son's making $50 million a year. Man, I'd be sitting at home on the couch watching my son play”. He laughed about it.

He goes, “I get what you're saying, but look, I got my own life, I'm proud of my son and what he's accomplished but this is sort of what I want to do”.

But stylistically, this series is going to be fun, you have the Hawks where JT wants them to push the pace and shoot the ball but Josh King wants to shut that down.

KEY MATCH-UP: Matt Hurt and whoever is guarding him.

I'm sure they're going to put Sam Froling on him at stages and also Darius Days but this this kid is so confident in his game. Whenever he makes a basket, he's shaking his head like, “why aren't they giving me the ball, do you know who I am?” He's one of those confident players.

Nothing wrong with being confident. He's not arrogant about it. He's talking to himself, but he's letting you know, I know what I'm doing here and I can get the job done. Now, whoever's guarding him, if you can slow him down, because you're not going to shut him down, but if you can slow him down a little bit, I'd give the edge to Illawarra.

But if he gets going, and you got these young kids coming in, Foxwell and all these young guys coming in, knocking shots down, if they can get themselves going, then South East Melbourne have a real chance.

PREDICTION: 2-1 Illawarra

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