Behind the numbers: Is the real Josh Giddey standing up?

• Josh Giddey has been on a career-defining tear since the NBA All-Star weekend
• He is shooting a career-best 38.3% from three-point land in that time
• Giddey will be a restricted free agent after this season

Josh Giddey was the headline news all over the world last week after hitting a halfcourt game-winner over LeBron James to beat the Los Angeles Lakers and hand the Chicago Bulls one of the biggest wins of their season which sent the United Center into pandemonium.

The moment immediately etched itself as a core memory into the young career of the Australian guard but as Giddey beamed with jubilation in the supportive arms of his teammates, the moment also felt like the ultimate catharsis during a career-defining stretch for the 22-year-old rising star.

While such heroics may be unlikely to be replicated, it was part of an outstanding 25-point, 14-rebound and 11-assist triple-double, in a line that’s feeling increasingly typical this season for the Boomers point guard. As the big games continue to build up, the question lingers - are we witnessing a hot streak, or has the real Josh Giddey finally revealed himself?

On the season, Giddey’s numbers may not scream breakout year with his 14.3 points per game less than his sophomore season at the Oklahoma City Thunder, the same applying to his field goal percentage of 46.9%. However, if we dig a little deeper, we can see some striking differences to his shot profile and its impact on his efficiency.

Most notably, Giddey’s three-point shooting has taken a significant leap. He will likely never be a gravity-commanding outside shooter, but simply knocking down open looks with confidence and efficiency has been a game-changer for the Melbourne Tigers junior product, shooting a career high 38.3% from beyond the arc on a career high three-point attempt rate.

Perhaps equally importantly, is his ability to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line has nearly doubled and is now at a career-high rate. Using his size advantage to get to the line is generating easy points for Giddey, and we’re seeing that reflected with his career best true shooting percentage of 57.4%, which for a player whose scoring efficiency has been a point for criticism, is now only 0.2% away from the league average figure.

It’s also worth noting that Giddey’s usage rate is at a career low. For all the narrative around him being "handed the keys" away from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the Thunder, his role hasn’t shifted in a drastic sense, though he’s likely to be producing against more first-units than second this season compared to last.

These numbers point to some level of improvement already, but this season has famously been a tale of two halves for Josh, both in his slow start, and his tear post All-Star Game weekend and post Zach LaVine being traded to Sacramento.

It would be fair to chalk up his red hot 53.1% three-point shooting as an unsustainable streak, however encouraging, but Giddey’s aggression and finishing at the rim made a significant jump over the streak.

As much as his blistering outside game has helped, it’s his ability to get all the way to the rim and finish that might be the most noteworthy and sustainable improvement. In fact, we can see less of a reliance of the outside shot and a drastic increase in points in the paint (PITP) and fast break points (FBPS), with a lower portion of field goal attempts coming from three, and an increase from the line.

There’s no doubt Giddey is an excellent basketball player - we’ve seen him carry the Boomers in FIBA play and dominate games at the NBA level at times since his rookie season. When he’s the man, he thrives. But as Giddey was swapped for impact role player Alex Caruso in the offseason, one major question lingered - when he’s not the man, what is his complementary role on a championship calibre NBA team? And will production as the pseudo-star during a rebuilding phase be fools gold in the middle of a contract year?

Only time will answer this question truly, but if post All-Star Giddey is real, maybe we’re asking the wrong question. At a near 20-point triple-double a night, on a team that’s won eight of their last 10 games and on the precipice of the playoffs, he is contributing to winning in his current role, combining his career-best scoring efficiency with the highest assist totals of his career and a relative improvement on the defensive end too.

While the fit with Gilgeous-Alexander always felt clunky, it may have been unfair to make a binary call on Giddey’s inability to exist with other talent. His play has co-existed with a career best run from back-court teammate Coby White, who has simultaneously won back-to-back Eastern Conference Player of the Week awards, complementing his Australian teammate with his off-ball shooting and decisive score-first mentality.

Perhaps Giddey has finally found his fit, and perhaps given recent developments, it’s not him that needs to work out how to fit around his teammates, but the other way around. Only time will tell on those.

One thing seems certain, however — Josh Giddey has levelled up.

About the Author

Michael Houben is an Australian basketball writer and scout based in Melbourne, Victoria. As well as covering the game as a journalist, Michael supports US colleges to identify and recruit Australian talent as the owner of Airtime Scouting, and supports grassroots athletes through Airtime Basketball.