Andrew Bogut: Why Japan could be calling Bryce

It feels more and more like Bryce Cotton is going to Japan.

My reasoning? The simple fact he hasn’t already penned a new deal with the Wildcats. His wife is from Perth, he's somewhat happy in Perth, I know they've thrown the house at him and tried to get him to re-sign. So, why hasn’t he?

There’s two things I think really come into consideration for Bryce when he’s deciding on his next move.

First is the money on offer in Japan. He would be on around $1 million AUD a season right now, or just above or just below that.  In Japan, there really is no salary cap, there aren’t restrictions like we have here in the NBL and the imports get paid in USD (most imports are paid in USD in the NBL also).

I would imagine at the very minimum, he would be getting offers of at least $450,000 or $600,000 USD over there, oh and that’s net after tax. That’s very hard to pass up.

The other thing he might take into consideration is his age. Now, I know he’s only 32 (almost 33) but guards generally decline in their mid-30s, unless you’re Steph Curry. The decline in guards is generally quicker than bigs because the speed goes and I think if Bryce loses his speed, even 20% of what he's got, it would be hard because that makes him such a tough guard. On and off the ball, he is super quick.  I think he could definitely play into his late 30s because he shoots the ball so well but his peak is right now.

I wonder if he is thinking 'I’ve got three or four years left in my prime, do I go and make two to three times what I'm making in Australia, top up my retirement account and then sail off into the sunset'. That's probably playing on his mind and could it be the driving factor?

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Could it be the former Head Coach of the Perth Wildcats now coaching in Japan with the Chiba Jets?

If it were me, as a part owner in this situation, I would try to get it done to an extent. You just have to be careful because we’re kind of restricted with how much we can spend to an extent in the NBL.

If he was naturalised, it would be a different conversation because you’d be able to be make him a marquee and basically pay him whatever you wanted to and it would only count as $300,000 towards your cap. What kills them is that he's an import, so it all counts towards the cap.

If it was our group, we'd have a number of things in mind. It would be what is too much for us? If we go to this point, does that cost us two valuable role players? Does it now take our strong eight or nine that we have to a strong six with a great fall off after that? Those are the conversations you have to have. You're taking some risks but also factoring in a game-changing player.  

We'd go through the exercise collaboratively, have a chat about it and come to what a comfortable number is to spend.

Then there's conversations around, not just next season, but what do we look like if we do this? What do we look like in three or four years? We would obviously try to re-sign him back earlier (before free agency) but speaking from experience, when you've got players that you haven’t been able to extend during the season, there's a couple of reasons why they have not put pen to paper.

One is they've got a deal somewhere overseas and they are looking to cash in.

Two is they don't like the situation they're in.

Three is they want to test the open market in the NBL or they've agreed to another NBL team verbally. I would comfortably rule this one out as Perth can pay just as much as anyone else.

Which one is it with Bryce? Who knows?

The crazy thing is, for the Wildcats, if they lose Bryce I don’t think it’s the end of the world for them.

They lose one of the best scorers in our league, but, and this isn't to knock Bryce, I thought they played very well without him this year. I thought they played a different style of game when he wasn’t in the line up in that stretch where he missed a few games.

They've still got a very talented roster but I think it'll be a completely different style of play. I think that when you've got a guy like Bryce Cotton, a lot of guys defer a lot to him, which is natural but it does take away from their natural game and their confidence. We saw that with Perth this year, we saw that with Pinder, we saw it with Webster, we saw it with numerous guys who didn't know when to go and when not to.

What they’ll miss is where he's so valuable, which is towards the end of games. He just comes up with big shots and big plays, and he's a habitual free throw line getter. In our league, he draws fouls like James Harden was drawing fouls in the NBA during his prime.

In my opinion if Bryce leaves this season, they're not going to be last. It will not be doom and gloom. They still have a very talented roster. Let’s just say they have the same roster as last season, you lose Bryce and you bring in another import that's 50% as good as him, they'll still be in the mix.

One thing I definitely don’t think it will impact is the support the Wildcats have. As much as I love to hate the Perth fans, they do a great job of coming to the games, unless it's at Challenge Stadium and then they forget about the Wildcats (joking, kinda).

In saying all of that, Bryce is definitely up there with one of the greatest to ever play the game in NBL history, there's no doubt about that. People bring up Leroy Loggins and a few other guys import wise but you could easily argue he's the greatest import to play in our game. Then he’s obviously up there with Andrew Gaze for the best ever. All debatable.

The advantage Bryce has is that he played in the NBL in his prime. He didn't come over when he was on his last legs like we see with many Australian talents like Delly and yours truly, he’s here in his prime. I have him as the best import ever in the NBL if I called it today.

The league is a better place with a Bryce Cotton running around causing absolute anarchy for opponents, and as much as he hurts the Kings at times, I hope it stays that way!

NBA Champion Andrew Bogut is a columnist and contributor for basketball.com.au. He is part owner of the Sydney Kings.