Playoff demons put all the pressure on United

All of the pressure is now on Melbourne United.

The last three times they've been in the playoffs, they've had control of the series and in two of them they've ended up losing. Now they have let a golden opportunity to close the championship out at home on Wednesday slip through their fingers.

In 2022, it was the semi-finals against the Tasmania JackJumpers where they were up 1-0 with homecourt advantage but then lost 2-1. Then in last year's championship series, Melbourne led 1-0 and then at 2-all had the chance to win it in a deciding game five at home. Now this year, they had the Illawarra Hawks down 2-1 going into John Cain Arena, then had the Hawks without Trey Kell and Sam Froling. But somehow the Hawks got the job done.

United are now in danger of losing two grand finals in a row. They have to go into Wollongong and beat the Hawks on their home floor again, which they have done twice already, but I think after game four, Illawarra have all the momentum.

It's been a little bit of a mental block for United just to get over that hump in recent years and sometimes we see this with teams that it can kind of play on their minds a little. They didn't look like the Melbourne United of the previous games in that in that third and fourth quarter of the last game, it was kind of like deer in the headlights type stuff.

But look, they are a proud club. They're a tough club. They'll bounce back.

Even though Illawarra have home court, they'll be missing their starting centre and Trey Kell will be a game time decision, so the pressure is all on United, in my opinion. Illawarra missing two starters should be easy pickings for United, but it won’t be that. Illawarra have done so well all season with their backs against the wall. Who else has? Melbourne. Makes for a great game five.

The game four loss was a huge opportunity missed by United. We always discussed it in the NBA, closeout games when you're the team that's leading, they're the hardest games in basketball. People think you win the first couple and you're set but that couldn't be further from the truth. The teams, who are trailing in an elimination game, are always going to fight, scrap and claw in that game and you kind of have to stay the course.

It took me by surprise a little in game four because they were shorthanded but Illawarra just outworked, outenergised and outplayed United, who resorted to having to go to iso ball for much of that game. I thought it was probably going to be a 10-point win to Melbourne but credit to Illawarra. I've said it all season, they are the deepest team in the NBL.

They have starters coming off the bench, really, in my opinion. They have guys like Lachlan Olbrich, Will Hickey and (Hyunjung) Lee who could start for some teams. They can go to multiple different lineups. Justin Tatum also did a phenomenal job in the last game of just changing up lineups and trying different things.

Olbrich got massive minutes because of the Froling injury and he took full advantage of it, he gives a different look to Sam. Sam is more reliant offensively on post touches and getting easy baskets, but Lachie's probably more mobile. He can get around the court a bit more, can handle in handoffs, is a decent passer, gets on the rim and I think he's probably better defensively at the moment. It's just a different beast with him and Darius Days out there a bit more and I think that's what kind of threw Melbourne a little bit.

As for what would be going through the heads of the guys at Melbourne United after the game four loss, I think the interesting thing is what do they do with their scout? They've done some interesting stuff that has worked early in the series such as having Marcus Lee on Hickey and daring him to shoot the three. The stats say he's not a great three-point shooter, but he made a couple last game and that gave him confidence and he was getting on the rim.

Do they go back to traditional match-ups? They played Delly at the four for stretches. Do they stick with that? The question is it's 2-2, do we stick with how we've scouted this series, or do we completely tweak it and change it up? That's what coaches on that staff will be going through.

Knowing Melbourne as well as I know them, I don't think they're going to throw the baby out with the bathwater. I think they're going to harp on energy and effort plays. Making sure they don't give up offensive boards, second-chance points and loose ball gets. They would have charted those last game and I think Illawarra probably came out on top and they would say that's why we lost, it's not our coverages, it's not our offence or our defence. We need better effort and energy.

I reckon they'll probably go down that route more than completely tweaking stuff. Then it's just going to be a game of tweaks and adjustments in-game, I think. The pre-game prep is what it is. At this point, you've played each other four times, you know each other backwards, it's just going to be energy, effort, and it's going to be a few in-game tweaks by both coaches that will get the win.

Is it the end of the world if United lose two championship series in a row? No, it's sport. As much as it sucks, and people will say they've choked two years in a row, they've put themselves in the position to even be there. There were people that picked Melbourne to not make the four this season. There were people that had them in the play-in, and there were even some people that picked them out of the six. I highly respect the way they've gone about it.

You're all about championships, and you don't get a trophy for second, but if you put yourself in the mix for the top four every season and you're in the top two and you lose two in a row, you're still in a good spot to build for next season and continue to try to get that elusive trophy. I wouldn't be overly critical, but it's probably what the front office do that would be interesting.

Do they move on from the roster? They're all questions that will arise if they do lose, because we know how the media works and naysayers work. But if they win it, they'll be the best thing since sliced bread and they'll bring them all back and they're great. That's the landscape we're in with media and social media.

I think their group stays pretty level-headed with it. But there will be ramifications either way of whoever wins the series with how their rosters go moving forward. Illawarra with Froling's achilles and what they do there. Olbrich coming into his own as well as Hickey now. There’s a lot of things that are hinging on how this next game goes for these two clubs.

For Sam Froling, it's obviously sad to see him go down and it's going to be tough being a contract year. If it's a partial tear of the achilles, sometimes that can be worse. Kevin Durant had a similar injury when I was with the Golden State Warriors in 2019 and you've got to be real diligent with your rehab and careful because you can rehab it perfectly and still get hurt again. So, you feel for him! Being around players one thing I often heard with an achillles, is a complete rupture, although a longer rehab is a better than a partial. Why? A partial tear significantly increases your risk for a full tear.

It's no doubt going to be a huge game on Sunday and very interesting. I think Melbourne go in as favourites but I think Illawarra get it done on their home court. If Illawarra win, do they not only hoist the trophy, but potentially take over the NBL ;)?

NBA Champion Andrew Bogut is a columnist and contributor for basketball.com.au. He is part owner of the Sydney Kings and has just been appointed assistant coach.

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